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Thursday, May 8, 2008

Soros and theory of reflexivity

Legendary investor George Soros was of the view that equities market was a total chaos - and the sooner one accepts it the better. He was of the view that its not always that the company's fundamentals determine the stock price (or equilibrate) but rather the stock prices can change a company's fundmentals in ways such as M & A. Stock prices being primarily a function of the perception people have, it is important to identify the inclination of the people towards a particular stock.

I would differ to some extent - in major index stocks its price is controlled/governed by the sal/purchases by QIB and HNIs etc. These being educated and rational woulf try to identify what rest of the markets think and conclude. Thus when each of the major entities think otherwise the common thinking may prevail. Its similar to a paradox. Let's illustrate - let the rational/intelligent participant be X and the rest of the market (excluding X ) be Y. Thus with X and Y together makes the universal set. X tries to identify how Y would interpret the market and accordingly steps counter measures - so if Y thinks stock A would perform X thinks its time to sell A. Similarly the other way round. But there are many participants who would think with the same logic - as a result we get the complementary set of expectations. Thus it would be really difficult to think as separate identity - i.e. there is no such thing like 'I' and the 'rest of market'. Its a sum total!

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